Pondering Oscar upsets

With the Oscar ceremony fast approaching, I've found myself pondering some possible upsets at this year's awards show.

For example . . .

Best Picture: I think it's safe to say that Slumdog Millionaire is firmly out in front for Best Picture. But I've begun to wonder if The Curious Case of Benjamin Button could sneak up from behind and overtake it. Instances like this have happened before—Crash overtaking favorited Brokeback Mountain (a move I still think was the correct one), Chariots of Fire overtaking Raiders of the Lost Ark. From this year's line-up, I think the only other picture that might even come close to scoring an upset is Milk.

Best Actor: If anyone upsets Mickey Rourke, it'll likely be Sean Penn. Say what you will about his politics, but the man can act! All the evidence you need of this is Mystic River and I Am Sam. Earlier I had thought Frank Langella might be the one to pull off an upset, but after seeing Frost/Nixon, I'd have to put him in third place.

Best Actress: As much as I'd like for Kate Winslet to take home the gold, I can't discount Meryl Streep from stealing it away. Bear in mind, I haven't seen The Reader or Doubt yet, so I can't fully assess which actress gave the better performance, but I'm cheering for Kate Winslet on principle, because I think she's a fabulous actress who's long overdue for an Oscar. As to Meryl Streep, I think I've made my feelings for her quite clear by now.

Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger was considered a shoo-in even before he died, and while I don't think he'll lose, I don't think Robert Downey, Jr. shouldn't be counted out, either. Josh Brolin, Philip Seymour Hoffman, those guys are pretty long shots in my opinion.

Best Supporting Actress: This one is really hard to gauge. At first I thought it would be Amy Adams who'd be crowned winner, but now I'm starting to wonder if Viola Davis or Penelope Cruz have running chances.

I guess all questions will be answered on Sunday night!!!